All India Consumer Price Index की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार अगर महंगाई सूचकांक ऐसे ही बढ़ता रहा तो जुलाई 2019 से केंद्रीय कर्मचारियों को अबकी बार 4 प्रतिशत तक महंगाई भत्ता मिल सकता है। अगर ऐसा होता है तो ये जनवरी 2016 के बाद से महंगाई भत्ते में सबसे ज्यादा बढ़ोतरी होगी। आइये इस को निम्न रिपोर्ट द्वारा समझते हैं।
Pattern of Consumer Price Index from July 2018:
The subject period has witnessed one Phenomenal increase in Consumer Price Index from 291 to 301 which is 10 points increase in July 2018 alone. Historical data reveals that out of consumer price index for the period from 2005 to June 2018, highest monthly increase in the index was recorded in the month of July 2009 which was 7 Points.
From August 2018 to December 2018, trend in CPI was steady as it remained in 301 in December 2018, after increased to 302 during October 2018 and November 2018.
However, Consumer Price Index for the month of January 2019, recorded considerable increase of 6 points and moved to 307. This increasing trend continued and in the month of April 2019 CPI is recorded at 312.
Consumer Price Index from July 2018 to April 2019 is as follows.
| Month | Actual AICPI-IW |
| Jul-2018 | 301 |
| Aug-2018 | 301 |
| Sep-2018 | 301 |
| Oct-2018 | 302 |
| Nov-2018 | 302 |
| Dec-2018 | 301 |
| Jan-2019 | 307 |
| Feb-2019 | 307 |
| Mar-2019 | 309 |
| Apr-2019 | 312 |
| May-2019 | Yet to be Released |
| Jun-2019 | Yet to be Released |
We have attempted to project consumer price index for the remaining two months and thereby estimate DA from July 2019.
What will be the DA from July 2019 if CPI remained at 312 in the remaining two months ?
In that case, increase in DA from July 2019 will be 4% and all Central Government Employees including Railway Employees, Defence Personnel and Pensioners will be entitled to Dearness Allowance of 16% with effect from July 2019.
Calculation of DA using the above data is as follows:
| DA with effect from 1st July 2019 | = [ (301+301+301+302+302+301+307+307+309+312+312+312)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
| = 16 % (increase of 4% from the DA of 12% w.e.f Jan 2019) |
How much will be the increase in DA if CPI witnessed two point increase in May 2019 and remained at the same level in June 2019?
As we suggested in the preface to this article, if the inflationary trend in Consumer price index that exists from January 2019 continues, there is a possibility of CPI moving to 314 in the month of May 2019 and June 2019. In that case, DA from July 2019, will be 17% which 5% increase from the current level of DA.
| DA with effect from 1st July 2019 | = [ (301+301+301+302+302+301+307+307+309+312+314+314)/12]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
| = 17 % (increase of 5% from the DA of 12% w.e.f Jan 2019) |
